Relocation from China (with Chinese characteristics)

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garred, Jason; Yuan, Song
• 署名单位: University of Ottawa; Zhejiang University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103510
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: china; TRADE; FDI; Global supply chains; relocation; Decoupling

摘要

Rising global political tensions and increasing use of trade policies are popularly seen as potential threats to globalization. Will these factors lead to the 'decoupling' of affected economies, or reshape relations between trade partners in more complex ways? We consider this question by studying the recent evolution of the economic relationship between China and the US, in the context of a sharp fall in direct China-US trade. Using firm-level and product-level data, we show that Chinese manufacturing investment and Chinese-produced parts have increasingly flowed to third-country 'winners' who have simultaneously increased their US market share. This suggests that Chinese economic actors have continued to participate in reorganized China-US supply chains. We present evidence that our findings capture expanding indirect relationships linking China and the US rather than broader economic trends within the 'winners' themselves.