Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bertinelli, Luisito; Coemertpay, Rana; Maystadt, Jean-Francois
• 署名单位: University of Luxembourg; Universite Catholique Louvain; Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; Lancaster University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Refugees; diversity; CONFLICT; migration; AFRICA

摘要

This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.