The agricultural and economic impacts of massive water diversion

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huang, Guangbo; Liu, Chong; Xi, Tianyang; Xu, Huayu; You, Wei
• 署名单位: Peking University; Peking University; Peking University; Peking University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103517
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Water scarcity; Agricultural productivity; South-North Water Diversion; Adaptive responses; regional development

摘要

We examine the agricultural and economic impacts of China's South-North Water Diversion Project, a massive initiative that channels water from the resource-rich south to the drier north. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the project increases total grain output by 8.2% and raises agricultural productivity by 4.7% in water-receiving counties. It also mitigates the adverse effects of drought shocks, leading to modest increases in local incomes. Improved water availability induces adaptive responses, including greater land allocation to water-intensive crops and a higher incidence of multi-cropping. Additionally, we find no evidence of significant losses in water-supplying areas. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests an internal rate of return of 6.4%, underscoring the project's economic viability.