Estimating poverty for India after 2011 using private-sector survey data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Roy, Sutirtha Sinha; van der Weide, Roy
• 署名单位: The World Bank; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103386
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: poverty; INEQUALITY; INDIA

摘要

The last expenditure survey released by India's National Sample Survey organization dates back to 2011, which underpins the last official estimates of poverty and inequality. This paper adopts anew approach to estimate India's poverty and inequality trajectory since 2011 using a newly available household panel survey conducted by the private sector. The results suggest that (1) extreme poverty is estimated to be lower in 2019 than in 2011, with greater poverty reductions likely in rural areas, and (2) coinciding with the demonetization event, urban poverty likely rose in 2016. The results should not be interpreted as definite proof. While the estimated trends in poverty sit well with a range of corroborative evidence, significant uncertainty remains stemming from sampling and non-sampling errors associated with the private-sector survey.