When the levee breaks: The impact of floods on educational outcomes in China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huang, Zenghe; Dong, Xiaofang
• 署名单位: Xiamen University; Xiamen University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103450
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Flood; human capital investment; Opportunity cost; Income effect

摘要

This study examines the impact of flooding on human capital investment in China. We find that early flood exposure significantly reduces educational attainment and the likelihood of entering high school in rural areas, particularly in regions with lower flood risk, non-detention basins, and counties without flood control dams. Income and opportunity cost effects contribute to these outcomes, with floods disproportionately affecting students from poor households. The emergence of low-skilled and labor-intensive firms post-floods further exacerbates the negative impact due to new job opportunities. A cohort difference-in-difference analysis of the 1998 China flood reveals that affected children under 15 in flooded areas experienced a reduction of 0.16 years in education. Our findings highlight the need for flood policies that mitigate the long-term adverse effects on human capital accumulation in China.