A compromise estimate of German Net National Product, 1851-1913, and its implications for growth and business cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: University of Munster
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• 发表日期: 2005
• 页码: 613-657
• 关键词: uk gdp 1870-1913; time-series; international evidence; historical properties; britain

摘要

We develop a compromise estimate of the German Net National Product for the years 1851-1913 based on four estimates from Hoffmann (1965) and Hoffmann and Muller (1959) by recalculating industrial production, investment, home and foreign capital income. Because differences remain during the early decades, we compute a weighted average compromise series. Economic activity is shown to be higher than the older estimates suggest. The average growth rate is lower. The average business cycle lasted five years, with high volatility in the early decades. The typical Grunderzeit pattern of boom then prolonged recession after 1873 can not be confirmed.