Did Technology Shocks Drive the Great Depression? Explaining Cyclical Productivity Movements in US Manufacturing, 1919-1939

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: University of Groningen
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050711002166
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 827-858
• 关键词: procyclical labor productivity; UNITED-STATES; business-cycle; EMPLOYMENT; earnings; returns; input; scale; work

摘要

Technology shocks and declining productivity have been advanced as important factors driving the Great Depression in the United States, based on real business cycle theory. We estimate an improved measure of technology for interwar manufacturing, using data from the U.S. census reports. There is clear evidence of increasing returns to scale and we find no statistical proof that technology shocks led to changes in hours worked or other inputs. This contradicts a key prediction of real business cycle theory. We find that increasing returns to scale are not due to market power but to labor and capital hoarding.