BAYES WITHOUT BERNOULLI - SIMPLE CONDITIONS FOR PROBABILISTICALLY SOPHISTICATED CHOICE
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
MACHINA, MJ; SCHMEIDLER, D
署名单位：
Tel Aviv University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
ISSN/ISSBN：
0022-0531
DOI：
10.1006/jeth.1995.1067
发表日期：
1995
页码：
106-128
关键词：
摘要：
Anscombe and Aumann (Ann. Math. Statist. 33 (1963), 199-205) demonstrated that introducing an objective randomizing device into the Savage setting of purely subjective uncertainty considerably simplifies the derivation of subjective probability from an individual's preferences over uncertain bets. We present a more general derivation of classical subjective probability in this mixed subjective/objective setting, which neither assumes nor implies that risk preferences necessarily conform to the expected utility principle. We argue that the essence of ''Bayesian rationality'' is the assignment, correct manipulation, and proper updating of subjective event probabilities when evaluating and comparing uncertain prospects, regardless of whether attitudes toward risk satisfy the expected utility property. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc.
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