Droughts, Conflicts, and the Importance of Democratic Legitimacy: Evidence from Pre-Industrial Europe

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Husson University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050725100922
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: -
• 关键词: medieval; GOVERNMENT; religion; shocks; grain

摘要

This research shows that droughts are robustly associated with city-level unrest in Europe over the years 900 to 1800 ce. This relationship is non-linear, with disproportionately greater increases in the probability of a conflict among droughts in the upper tail of the severity distribution. Elected city governments are relatively immune to drought-induced conflict, while those based on representation by burghers or guilds are not. These results suggest that local governments are key to maintaining social stability during economic shocks, and are most successful when they have a greater degree of democratic legitimacy.