TRADE LIBERALIZATION, CREDIBILITY AND SELF-FULFILLING FAILURES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: BUFFIE, EF
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/0022-1996(94)01333-N
• 发表日期: 1995
• 页码: 51-73
• 关键词: liberalization; credibility; PAYMENTS DEFICITS

摘要

This paper addresses the question of whether there may be a self-fulfilling aspect to the failure of liberalization attempts when it is widely known the government will abandon the reform if the central bank suffers an unacceptably large loss in reserves. I derive the conditions for both sustained reform and a self-fulfilling failure to be equilibrium outcomes. Under certain well defined conditions, liberalization is most likely to succeed when the capital account is open.