Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Senhadji, AS
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00043-3
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 105-131
• 关键词: S-curve; stochastic general equilibrium model; Terms of trade; trade balance dynamics

摘要

In their analysis of the dynamic behavior of terms of trade and the trade balance, Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland found that the lead and lag correlation between these two variables is S-shaped for a set of OECD countries. Furthermore, they show that this S-curve can be replicated by a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. Surprisingly, the S-curve also describes the dynamic relationship between terms of trade and the trade balance for a large set of LDCs. This S-curve can also be reproduced by a small-open-economy model which captures some important features of LDC economies. The S-curve is unexpectedly robust to variations in the key parameters of the model. The model also captures the business cycle properties of the LDC data. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.