Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Canova, F; Marrinan, J
• 署名单位: Pompeu Fabra University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00038-X
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 133-166
• 关键词: consumption interdependencies; production interdependencies; technology and government disturbances; transmission

摘要

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multicountry model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared. Technology disturbances, which are mildly correlated across countries, are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data. The presence of a common component to the shocks and of production interdependencies appear to be crucial in quantitatively matching the properties of the data. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.