Disinflation and fiscal reform: a neoclassical perspective

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rigobon, R
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(02)00015-6
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 265-297
• 关键词: stabilization programs; exchange rate management; disinflation; REFORM; Speculative attacks

摘要

Many Latin American countries engaged in disinflation programs based on both exchange rate management and fiscal reforms. In most of the cases, part of the fiscal reform was not implemented and the program had to be abandoned. The aftermath of these programs is not encouraging. In this paper we show that, if the reform process is uncertain and inflation has welfare costs, the optimal exchange rate policy indeed implies the initiation of a disinflation program at the announcement of the fiscal reform, even if it implies the possibility of a balance of payments crisis. Finally, we show that it is optimal to engage in a sequence of stabilization programs until one of them is successful. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.