Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rutherford, TF; Tarr, DG
• 署名单位: University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00121-0
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 247-272
• 关键词: trade liberalization; product variety; GROWTH; computable general equilibrium

摘要

We develop a numerical growth model that quantifies the welfare effects of trade liberalization. Additional intermediate input varieties provide the engine of growth and dramatically magnify the welfare gains from trade liberalization. In our central model, a 10% tariff cut leads to a 10.6% estimated gain in Hicksian EV. Systematic sensitivity analysis shows that there is virtually no chance of a welfare increase less than 3%, but a 6.6% chance of a welfare gain greater than 18%. We show that complementary reforms are crucial to fully realize the potential gains from the trade reform. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.