Real effects of collapsing exchange rate regimes: an application to Mexico

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Osakwe, PN; Schembri, LL
• 署名单位: Bank of Canada
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00151-9
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 299-325
• 关键词: collapsing exchange rate regimes; output variability; capital flows; exports; Mexico

摘要

This paper examines the impact of collapsing fixed, permanently fixed, and flexible exchange rate regimes on real output. Much of the recent discussion of the causes of exchange rate regime collapses has focused on capital flows and export demands. In an environment in which such external shocks predominate, a flexible exchange rate is shown theoretically to produce lower output variability for a range of parameter values. A counterfactual exercise is performed using Mexican data. We find that had Mexico been on a flexible rate for the past two decades, the variance of real output would have been reduced by half. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.