Speculation and the decision to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pastine, I
• 署名单位: Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(01)00134-9
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 197-229
• 关键词: speculative attacks; nominal anchor; optimizing BOP crises

摘要

This paper demonstrates that the implications of first-generation speculative attack models do not hold if there is a rational, forward-looking policy maker. The policy maker will be able to avoid predictable speculative attacks by introducing uncertainty into the decisions of speculators. This changes the sudden attack into a prolonged period of increasing speculation and uncertainty. In addition, the model provides useful insights into the viability of temporary nominal anchor policies, and a theoretical foundation for a useful empirical methodology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.