Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Agénor, PR; Aizenman, J
• 署名单位: The World Bank; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(03)00069-2
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 321-340
• 关键词: savings; terms of trade shocks; borrowing constraints; habit formation; gmm

摘要

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade-in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms of trade disturbances while controlling for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-1996, indicate that periods of increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.