Lending booms, sharp reversals and real exchange rate dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gopinath, G
• 署名单位: University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2003.08.002
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 1-23
• 关键词: Sudden stops; Real exchange rate; search; Foreign investors; asymmetry

摘要

Emerging markets in the 1990s experienced periods of booms followed by collapses in gross domestic product, consumption, traded and non-traded sector output and real exchange rate movements alongside unprecedented movements in foreign investor participation in these economies. An important feature of these episodes is the asymmetry in the pattern of booms and collapses. We introduce a natural search friction into the foreign investment decision in a small open economy and demonstrate that this can generate the asymmetry observed in the data. The magnitude of the reversals predicted by the model can be quantitatively large and empirically relevant. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.