Shilnikov chaos in the Lucas model of endogenous growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bella, Giovanni; Mattana, Paolo; Venturi, Beatrice
• 署名单位: University of Cagliari
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2017.09.010
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 451-477
• 关键词: Lucas model; Shilnikov chaos; Global indeterminacy; History versus expectations

摘要

This paper shows that chaotic dynamics and global indeterminacy may characterize the Lucas (1988) endogenous growth model in its local determinacy region of the parameter space. This is achieved by means of the Shilnikov (1965) theorem, which exploits the existence of a family of homoclinic orbits doubly asymptotic to the balanced growth path, when it is a saddle-focus. The economic implications of these results are also discussed. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.