Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization:: Are developing countries any different?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Calderon, Cesar; Chong, Alberto; Stein, Ernesto
• 署名单位: The World Bank; Inter-American Development Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.06.001
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 2-21
• 关键词: bilateral trade; cycle synchronization; LDCs; Intra-industry trade; integration

摘要

Trade intensity increases the business cycle co-movement among industrial countries. Using annual information for 147 countries for the period 1960-99 we find that the impact of trade intensity on business cycle correlation among developing countries is positive and significant, but substantially smaller than that among industrial countries. Our findings suggest that differences in the responsiveness of cycle synchronization to trade integration between industrial and developing countries are explained by differences in the patterns of specialization and bilateral trade. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.