The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: di Giovanni, Julian; Shambaugh, Jay C.
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Dartmouth College
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.09.002
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 341-361
• 关键词: Exchange rate regime; international transmission; Interest rates

摘要

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.