On the cost of misperception: General results and behavioral applications

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gossner, Olivier; Steiner, Jakub
• 署名单位: Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Zurich; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2018.08.003
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 816-847
• 关键词: memory; bounded rationality; Perception bias; overconfidence

摘要

In a choice model, we characterize the loss induced by misperceptions of payoff-relevant parameters across a distribution of decision problems. When the agent cannot avoid misperceptions but has some control over the distribution of errors, we show that strategies that minimize loss from misperception exhibit systematic biases, akin to some documented in the behavioral and psychological literatures. We include illusion of control, order effect, overprecision, and overweighting of small probabilities as illustrative examples. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.