New measures of trade creation and trade diversion

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Magee, Christopher S. P.
• 署名单位: Bucknell University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.03.006
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 349-362
• 关键词: Regional trade agreements; trade creation; Trade diversion; gravity model

摘要

This paper estimates the effects of regional agreements on trade flows controlling for country pair, importer-year, and exporter-year fixed effects. These fixed effects capture the determinants of trade flows normally included in gravity model specifications and control for yearly shocks to countries' trade. Controlling for the fixed effects generally reduces the estimated trade impacts of regional agreements. The estimates reveal that regional agreements have significant anticipatory effects on trade flows and continue to affect trade for up to 11 years after they begin. The paper also presents estimated effects on individual countries' trade flows in year five of the agreements. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights resented.