Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Egger, Peter; Larch, Mario
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; University of Nottingham
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.08.003
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 384-399
• 关键词: preferential trade agreements; Probit model; Spatial econometrics

摘要

The establishment of a new preferential trade agreement (PTA) or the expansion of an existing one alters the incentives of non-members to participate in a PTA. This can lead to a domino effect whereby non-members join an existing PTA. Or it can lead a pair of countries to establish a new PTA. We examine the determinants of why a pair of countries enters a bilateral PTA. Our emphasis is on (a) the impact of pre-existing PTAs and (b) whether this impact is larger when the members of pre-existing PTAs are on average geographically close to the pair of countries. Using data for 145 countries during 1955-2005, we find evidence that pre-existing PTAs increase the probability that a country-pair will enter a bilateral PTA and that this effect diminishes with distance. The analysis makes use of techniques drawn from spatial econometrics. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.