A behavioral definition of unforeseen contingencies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kochov, Asen
• 署名单位: University of Rochester
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2018.01.018
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 265-290
• 关键词: Dynamic choice; Unforeseen events; ambiguity aversion

摘要

The paper proposes a choice-theoretic definition of an unforeseen event and a model of behavior that accommodates such events. The analysis presumes an individual who is aware of their unawareness, which explains why all unforeseen events in this paper are non-null. Relative to existing work, the main contribution is to establish a distinction between unforeseen events and events whose likelihood is ambiguous. This is achieved by adopting a dynamic choice setting. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.