Remittances and the Dutch disease

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Acosta, Pablo A.; Lartey, Emmanuel K. K.; Mandelman, Federico S.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; The World Bank; California State University System; California State University Fullerton
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.06.007
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 102-116
• 关键词: Dutch disease; Real exchange rate; remittances

摘要

Using data for El Salvador and Bayesian techniques, we develop and estimate a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of remittances on emerging market economies. We find that, whether altruistically motivated or otherwise, an increase in remittance flows leads to a decline in labor supply and an increase in consumption demand that is biased toward non-tradables. The higher non-tradable prices serve as incentive for an expansion of that sector, culminating in reallocation of labor away from the tradable sector - a phenomenon known as the Dutch disease. Quantitative results also indicate that remittances improve the welfare of households because they smooth income flows and increase consumption and leisure levels. A BVAR analysis provides results that are consistent with the dynamics of the model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.