Economic transformation, population growth and the long-run world income distribution

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chamon, Marcos; Kremer, Michael
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brookings Institution
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.04.008
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 20-30
• 关键词: Economic development; international trade; Population growth

摘要

We present and calibrate a model where trade with advanced economies spurs development, and trade opportunities depend on the relative population in advanced and developing countries. As developing countries become advanced, prospects improve for the remaining developing countries. If population growth differentials between developing and advanced economies are small, economic development accelerates over time. Otherwise, long-run global prosperity requires a sufficiently large initial population in advanced countries. More open countries develop faster, but more openness by all developing countries may only modestly increase their aggregate growth. China's development may hurt developing countries in the short-run, but improves their long-run prospects. (C) 2009 International Monetary Fund. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.