The structure of factor content predictions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Trefler, Daniel; Zhu, Susan Chun
• 署名单位: University of Toronto; University of Toronto; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Michigan State University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.07.006
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 195-207
• 关键词: Factor content of trade; Vanek prediction; International technology differences; Traded intermediates

摘要

The last decade witnessed an explosion of research Into the Impact of international technology differences on the factor content of trade Yet the literature has failed to confront two pivotal issues First with international technology differences and traded intermediate inputs there is no existing definition of the factor content of trade that is compatible with Vanek s factor content prediction We fill this gap Second as Helpman and Krugman (1985) showed many models beyond Heckscher-Ohlin imply the Vanek prediction Thus absent a complete list of these models we do not fully know what models are being tested when the Vanek prediction is tested We completely characterize the class of models being tested by providing a familiar consumption similarity condition that is necessary and sufficient for a robust Vanek prediction Finally we reassess the performance of the prediction using the correct factor content definition and Input-output tables for 41 countries We find that the prediction performs well except for the presence of missing trade Further missing trade is not pervasive it is associated entirely with home bias in the consumption of agricultural goods government services and construction (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved