International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Engel, Charles; Wang, Jian
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.08.007
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 37-52
• 关键词: Durable goods; International Real Business Cycles; Elasticity puzzle; Backus-Smith puzzle

摘要

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3. net exports are counter-cyclical. Standard models fail to replicate the behavior of imports and exports, though they can match net exports relatively well. Inspired by the fact that a large fraction of international trade is in durable goods, we propose a two-country two-sector model in which durable goods are traded across countries. Our model can match the business cycle statistics on the volatility and comovement of the imports and exports relatively well. The model is able to match many dimensions of the data, which suggests that trade in durable goods may be an important element in open-economy macro models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.