Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jacks, David S.; Meissner, Christopher M.; Novy, Dennis
• 署名单位: University of Warwick; Simon Fraser University; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.10.008
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 185-201
• 关键词: Trade costs; gravity; GLOBALIZATION

摘要

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We employ a micro-founded measure of trade frictions consistent with leading trade theories to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.