The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bergin, Paul R.; Lin, Ching-Yi
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Tsing Hua University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.01.005
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 191-204
• 关键词: Currency union; Extensive margin of trade; Trade costs

摘要

The response of trade to a monetary union is a dynamic process. An empirical study of the European monetary union finds that the extensive margin of trade in new goods responded several years ahead of EMU implementation and ahead of overall trade volume. A dynamic rational expectations trade model shows that early entry of new firms in anticipation is explainable as a rational forward-looking response to news. The model helps identify which types of trading frictions are reduced by a currency union, and shows how new entry can be affected by uncertainty about EMU. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.