Does Short-Term Debt Increase Vulnerability to Crisis? Evidence from the East Asian Financial Crisis

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Benmelech, Efraim; Dvir, Eyal
• 署名单位: Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston College
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.12.004
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 485-494
• 关键词: Short-Term Debt; Debt maturity; financial crises; East Asian Crisis; Bank runs

摘要

Does short-term debt increase vulnerability to financial crisis, or does short-term debt reflect - rather than cause - the incipient crisis? We study the role that short-term debt played in the collapse of the East Asian financial sector in 1997-1998. We alleviate concerns about the endogeneity of short-term debt by using long-term debt obligations that matured during the crisis. We find that debt obligations issued at least three years before the crisis had a negative, albeit sometimes insignificant, effect on the probability of failure. Our results are consistent with the view that short-term debt reflects, rather than causes, distress in financial institutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.