The effects of the saving and banking glut on the US economy

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Tambalotti, Andrea
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Northwestern University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.12.009
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: S52-S67
• 关键词: Banking glut; Saving glut; collateral constraints; Current account deficit

摘要

We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one fourth and one third of the increase in U.S. house prices and household debt that preceded the financial crisis. The key to these findings is that the model generates the sustained low level of interest rates observed over that period. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V.