Surges

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ghosh, Atish R.; Qureshi, Mahvash S.; Kim, Jun Il; Zalduendo, Juan
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.12.007
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 266-285
• 关键词: Surges; capital flows; Emerging market economies

摘要

This paper examines when and why capital sometimes surges to emerging market economies (EMEs). Using data on net capital flows for 56 EMEs over 1980-2011, we find that global factors, including US interest rates and investor risk aversion act as gatekeepers that determine when surges of capital to EMEs will occur. Whether a particular EME receives a surge, and the magnitude of that surge, however, depends largely on domestic factors such as its external financing need, capital account openness, and exchange rate regime. Differentiating between surges driven by exceptional behavior of asset flows (repatriation of foreign assets by domestic residents) from those driven by exceptional behavior of liability flows (nonresident investments into the country), shows the latter to be relatively more sensitive to global factors and contagion. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.