Trade and the geographic spread of the great recession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Stumpner, Sebastian
• 署名单位: Universite de Montreal; European Central Bank; Bank of France
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.04.001
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 169-180
• 关键词: Interregional trade; Regional propagation; great recession

摘要

I study the role of trade between U.S. states in the regional propagation of local consumer demand shocks during the Great Recession. To identify the trade channel empirically, I make use of heterogeneity in the direction of trade flows across industries in the same state: Industries that depended relatively more on final demand from states with housing boom-bust cycles grew by more before the crisis and declined faster from 2007 to 09. A one standard deviation difference in the exposure to demand shocks during the recession explains a 2.9 percentage point difference in employment growth. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.