Can global uncertainty promote international trade?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baley, Isaac; Veldkamp, Laura; Waugh, Michael
• 署名单位: Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103347
• 发表日期: 2020
• 关键词: uncertainty; international trade; Terms of trade; information frictions; learning; risk-sharing

摘要

Common wisdom holds that uncertainty impedes trade-yet we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. in equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and variance in returns to exporting. This implies that trade can increase or decrease with uncertainty, depending on preferences. Under general conditions on preferences, we characterize the importance of these forces using a sufficient statistics approach. Higher uncertainty leads to increases in trade because agents receive improved terms of trade, particularly in states of nature in which consumption is most valuable. Trade creates value, in part, by offering a mechanism for risk sharing, and risk sharing is most effective when both parties are uninformed. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.