Global factors and trend inflation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kamber, Gunes; Wong, Benjamin
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Monash University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103265
• 发表日期: 2020
• 关键词: Trend inflation; Foreign shocks; Beveridge-Nelson decomposition

摘要

We develop an empirical model to study the influence of global factors in driving trend inflation and the inflation gap. We apply our model to 7 developed economies and 21 emerging market economies. Our results suggest that while global factors can have a sizeable influence on the inflation gap, they play only a marginal role in driving trend inflation. Much of the influence of global factors in the inflation gap may be reflecting commodity price shocks. Finally, we find the effect of global factors to be greater in our sample of emerging market economies relative to the developed economies. There is some evidence which suggest propagation mechanisms, which may reflect institutional structures or policy choices, can explain the greater role for global factors in driving trend inflation in emerging market economies. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.