Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Bajzik, Josef; Havranek, Tomas; Irsova, Zuzana; Schwarz, Jiri
署名单位：
Charles University Prague; Czech National Bank
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0022-1996
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103383
发表日期：
2020
关键词：
摘要：
A key parameter in international economics is the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods, also called the Armington elasticity. Yet estimates vary widely. We collect 3524 reported estimates of the elasticity, construct 32 variables that reflect the context in which researchers obtain their estimates, and examine what drives the heterogeneity in the results. To account for model uncertainty, we employ Bayesian and frequentist model averaging. To correct for publication bias, we use newly developed non-linear techniques. Our main results are threefold. First, there is publication bias against small and statistically insignificant elasticities. Second, differences in results are best explained by differences in data: aggregation, frequency, size, and dimension. Third, the elasticity implied by the literature after accounting for both publication bias and study quality lies in the range 2.5-5.1 with a median of 3.8. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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