Is the political business cycle for real?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Blomberg, SB; Hess, GD
• 署名单位: Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; Wellesley College; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/S0047-2727(01)00142-6
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1091-1121
• 关键词: political business cycle

摘要

This paper constructs and examines a macroeconomic model which combines features from both real and political business cycle models.-We augment a standard real business cycle tax model by allowing for varying levels of government partisanship and competence in order to replicate two important empirical regularities: First, that on average the economy expands early under Democratic Presidents and contracts early under Republican Presidents. Second, that Presidents whose parties successfully retain the presidency have stronger than average growth in the second half of their terms. The model generates both of these features that conform to U.S. Post World War II data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.