A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Leduc, S; Sill, K
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.09.004
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 781-808
• 关键词: oil; monetary policy; recessions

摘要

Are the recessionary consequences of oil-price shocks due to oil-price shocks themselves or to the monetary policy that responds to them? We investigate this question in a calibrated general equilibrium model in which oil use is tied to capital utilization. The response to an oil-price shock is examined under a variety of monetary policy specifications. Under our benchmark calibration, which approximates the Federal Reserve's behavior since 1979, monetary policy contributes about 40 percent to the drop in output following a rise in oil prices. Moreover, none of the commonly proposed policies we examine completely offsets the recessionary consequences of oil shocks. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.