Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Laitner, J; Stolyarov, D
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.07.001
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 191-233
• 关键词: embodied technological change; technological revolutions; aggregate returns to scale; productivity analysis

摘要

We develop a new general equilibrium growth accounting framework that features increasing returns to scale, imperfect competition and incorporates technological revolutions into the description of technical progress. We propose a way to tell apart revolutionary changes in technology and incremental innovations using stock market data. We use our framework to jointly estimate the overall embodied TFP change during 1953-1995 and the aggregate output elasticity. We find that the IT revolution raised the aggregate TFP level by about 20%. We suggest a 1.09-1.11 range for the aggregate returns to scale. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.