Net migration and state labor market dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gallin, JH
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/380401
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 1-21
• 关键词: UNITED-STATES; differentials; equilibrium; INVESTMENT; mobility; models

摘要

Existing empirical estimates of net migration models are not identified because they lack an explicit measure of expected future conditions. I find that using actual one-period-ahead net migration at the state level to control for expectations reduces the strength of the relationship between current wages and net migration by more than one-third. I use the case of Michigan to show how existing empirical models mischaracterize the response of migration to shocks that are expected to be transitory. I add migration to a labor market model and simulate responses to permanent and transitory demand shocks.