Multiyear budgets and fiscal performance: Panel data evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Vlaicu, Razvan; Verhoeven, Marijn; Grigoli, Francesco; Mills, Zachary
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; The World Bank; International Monetary Fund; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.12.011
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 79-95
• 关键词: budget institutions; Medium-term framework; Fiscal discipline; Health sector; Technical efficiency; Dynamic panel data analysis

摘要

In the last two decades more than 120 countries have adopted a multiyear budget process (Medium-Term Framework, or MTF) that enables the central government to set multiyear fiscal targets. This paper analyzes a newly-collected dataset of worldwide MTF adoptions during 1990-2008. It exploits within-country variation in adoption in a dynamic panel framework to estimate MTFs' impacts on aggregate as well as sectoral measures of fiscal performance. We find that on average multiyear budgeting improves budget balance by about 2 percentage points with more advanced MTF phases having a larger impact. Higher-phase MTFs also reduce health spending volatility, while only the top-phase MTF has a measurable impact on health sector technical efficiency. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.