The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coulomb, Renaud; Sangnier, Marc
• 署名单位: Paris School of Economics; Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0047-2727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.05.001
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 158-170
• 关键词: Political majority; prediction markets; Firm value; Abnormal returns; political connections

摘要

This paper simultaneously estimates the impact of political majorities on the values of firms that would benefit from the platforms of the two main candidates at the 2007 French presidential election, Segolene Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy, and of those that are ruled or owned by Sarkozy's friends. We use prediction-market data to track each candidate's victory probability, and investigate how this relates to firms' abnormal returns. Our estimates suggest that the value of firms that would likely benefit from the platforms of Royal and Sarkozy changed by 1% and 2%, respectively, with the candidates' victory probabilities, and that firms connected to Sarkozy outperformed others by 3% due to his election. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.