Educational Attainment and the Changing US Wage Structure: Dynamic Implications on Young Individuals' Choices

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Buchinsky, Moshe; Leslie, Phillip
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/651720
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 541-594
• 关键词: UNITED-STATES; quantile regression; earnings; returns

摘要

We present a dynamic model of individuals' educational investments that allows us to explore alternative modeling strategies for forecasting future wage distributions. The key innovation we propose is an approach to forecasting that relies only on the information that would be available at the actual time decisions are made and which incorporates the role of parameter uncertainty into the decision-making process. We compare the performance of our method with alternative models of forecasting behavior, based on CPS data over the period 1964-2004.