Estimating Equilibrium Effects of Job Search Assistance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gautier, Pieter; Muller, Paul; van der Klaauw, Bas; Rosholm, Michael; Svarer, Michael
• 署名单位: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Gothenburg; Aarhus University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/697513
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1073-1125
• 关键词: labor-market policies; social experiment; program; education; IMPACT; time; subsidy; Mexico; MODEL; work

摘要

Identifying policy-relevant treatment effects from randomized experiments requires the absence of spillovers between participants and nonparticipants (SUTVA) or variation in observed treatment levels. We find that SUTVA is violated for a Danish activation program for unemployed workers. Using a difference-in-differences model, we show that nonparticipants in the experiment regions find jobs more slowly after the introduction of the program than workers in other regions. We estimate an equilibrium search model to identify the policy-relevant treatment effect. A large-scale rollout of the program is shown to decrease welfare, while a standard partial microeconometric cost-benefit analysis concludes the opposite.