Reconciling Occupational Mobility in the Current Population Survey

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: vom Lehn, Christian; Ellsworth, Cache; Kroff, Zachary
• 署名单位: Brigham Young University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/718563
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: nonlinear models; job mobility; errors; identification; unemployment; polarization

摘要

Measuring occupational mobility from the Current Population Survey using retrospective or longitudinal methods generates substantially different outcomes, in both levels and trends. Using a generalized method of moments technique, we estimate the level of occupational mobility and the measurement error in both of these measures for 1981-2018. We estimate that occupational mobility has been trending down, particularly since 2000, consistent with retrospective measures of occupational mobility. However, estimated mobility is 2-3 percentage points or 60%-70% higher than retrospective measures. Measurement error in longitudinal measures is large and has been worsening over time.