The demographic deficit

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cooley, Thomas; Henriksen, Espen
• 署名单位: New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; BI Norwegian Business School
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.005
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 45-62
• 关键词: mortality; fertility; life-cycle saving; labor supply; Growth accounting

摘要

There has been a slowdown in growth in the world's most advanced economies. In this paper we argue that changing demographics, in particular aging populations combined with increased life expectancy, may be part of the explanation for why we observe slower growth, falling interest rates and falling productivity growth. Using Japan and the U.S. in the years prior to the financial crises as a case study, we provide estimates of the growth deficit that arises from an aging cohort structure and increasing life expectancy. We also provide projections of the impact of predictable demographic changes on future growth in the U.S. and Japan. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.