Tarnishing the golden and empire states: Land-use restrictions and the US economic slowdown

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Herkenhoff, Kyle F.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Prescott, Edward C.
• 署名单位: University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.001
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 89-109
• 关键词: Land regulation; PRODUCTIVITY; GROWTH; migration; Capital Reallocation; Spatial general equilibrium

摘要

This paper studies the impact of state-level land-use restrictions on U.S. economic activity, focusing on how these restrictions have depressed macroeconomic activity since 2000. We use a variety of state-level data sources, together with a general equilibrium spatial model of the United States to systematically construct a panel dataset of state-level land use restrictions between 1950 and 2014. We show that these restrictions have generally tightened over time, particularly in California and New York. We use the model to analyze how these restrictions affect economic activity and the allocation of workers and capital across states. Counterfactual experiments show that deregulating existing urban land from 2014 regulation levels back to 1980 levels would have increased US GDP and productivity roughly to their current trend levels. California, New York, and the Mid-Atlantic region expand the most in these counterfactuals, drawing population out of the South and the Rustbelt. General equilibrium effects, particularly the reallocation of capital across states, account for much of these gains. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.