Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Davis, J. Scott; Van Wincoop, Eric
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.07.009
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 83-100
• 关键词: Capital inflows and outflows; Financial globalization; Trade globalization

摘要

The correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 127 advanced and developing countries. We provide evidence that this is a result of an increase in financial globalization (stock of external assets and liabilities). This dominates the effect of an increase in trade globalization (exports plus imports), which reduces the correlation between capital inflows and outflows. In the context of a two-country model with 8 shocks we show that the theoretical impact of financial and trade globalization on the correlation between capital inflows and outflows is consistent with the data. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.